Discovery Solar

​

Some possible development scenarios

​

        The currency system with the policies and procedures described above has mechanisms for both the creation and destruction of the currency. Issuing currency with membership, with bonus currency to donors and those that get education and making of grants and zero-interest loans creates currency. Repayment of the loans destroys currency. The managed basic issuance with membership, bonus currency for donations and education and the grants make the system more effective in pursuing its goals than the loans alone would. Thus it is expected that there will be a phase in which currency accumulates in the system, in the accounts of the producers and working members, while currency is issued faster than it is destroyed by loan repayments. Management, discretion of the producers and individual workers and expansion of the size and number of participating producers should prevent the build-up of currency per individual member from becoming excessive. After the build-up phase, the amount of currency should remain about constant, but the number and size of participating producers could continue to increase until steady state is realized.

​

     The initial stages, Phase 1 ,2 3, .... of a set of a possible development scenario are shown in Figs. 1 - 8.  At the start of Phase 1, some long-term early-stage research and development projects are already underway. More research and development projects at various stages, manufacturing projects and other projects useful to the mission are recruited during Phase 1.  Early stage projects may be more likely to join in the early stages of the Transition Project than established companies because the former have a greater need for the crowd funding that the Transition Project would enable. The early-stage projects are classified as "Long-term Research and Development Projects" and they are represented in Fig. 1. Also in Phase 1, people join the group, pay small dues and get e-currency (or authorization for e-currency) and in some cases grants of the e-currency, to be used toward purchase of the products from the projects/companies in the group at the time and that join later, once they go into production. The software for the e-currency system is developed or procured in Phase 1.  The flow of e-currency to new members that join in the early stage of Phase 1 is represented as an arrow in Fig. 1.

​

​

​

​

L

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

   

       After some time, later in Phase 1, one or more projects may have well-tested prototypes and be nearly ready for production, so that they emerge from the long-term projects classification. Also, new projects could join when already in or near a production stage. In either case, suppose that two projects now have prototypes under test and are nearly ready to go into production, a solar cell/panel/energy storage project and an electric vehicle project. For simplicity of exposition, manufacturing and installation of solar cells and panels and energy storage are represented as one entity. The solar/storage  factory or factories could be planned in one locality while the electric vehicle factory in another. Other projects continue in research and development. Fig. 2 shows the projects and the continuing flow of e-currency (or e-currency authorization) to individuals as they join  (represented by the arrow).

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

     It would be good if some of the manufacturing projects were planning to manufacture solar panels for residential and commercial installation and also energy storage technology and if the electric vehicles included cars, vans and trucks. However, it might be that the system will have more humble beginnings, with manufacturing of smaller products useful in a transition or for resilience in the difficult period through the middle of the century and beyond. For example, these might include basic products useful in small-scale distributed agriculture, increasingly important as climate change disrupts established large-scale agriculture. After a large number of people become members though, projects and companies that manufacture solar panels, storage and transportation units should have incentive to join; it is envisioned that a build-up of membership will influence more projects/companies/businesses to join, especially during a low-level, high-unemployment economy when they need more customers. The Transition Project might also be able to help start companies and cooperatives from the ground up and the emphasis should be on products and services useful in the transition and for resilience, and for essential purposes. Some unnecessary, extravagant products would be banned from the platform.

​

       In the next phase of development, Phase 2, the projects get closer to production and the factories are established in their respective localities. Some member get grants for larger amounts of currency for solar installations, possibly with energy storage, and/or electric vehicles. The grants should go mainly to people who would otherwise not be able to make the purchases. Some people are matched with jobs and become members if they are not already. Those members matched with jobs at participating companies that will pay them partially in the community currency are eligible for community currency loans to be repaid. In Fig. 3, the members matched with jobs are represented along with the projects as workers. The flows of community currency grants and loans during Phase 2 are shown as arrows. New members continue to join and get currency and these flows are also shown. The long-term projects become more advanced but are still not ready for production. At the end of Phase 2, at least some production capacity is ready but no orders are yet filled.

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

     

​

        In the next phase, Phase 3, production begins, orders are filled and the community currency issued for some of the purchases and leases (grants and leases) and from other issues is paid to the manufacturing business entities. Any portions of agreed upon prices not covered by community currency are paid with USD but only community currency flows are shown. Phase 3 will be a period of some number of months. The flows of community currency are shown in Fig. 4 for the first month. Not all orders from members outstanding are filled in just one month. A number of monthly cycles may be required to fill all orders that were made prior to starting production. Purchases and leases are also initiated by individuals who are not members of the Transition Project, but they do not have community currency to use and so no flows of community currency can be shown for them and they are not shown on the diagram. By the end of the first month, the business entities are completely paid for the production completed, delivered and installed in the month. No flows are shown to the longer-term projects because they are not yet in production.

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

       At the end of the first month of Phase 3, those workers and non-working members who’s orders have not been filled, still have their full initial amounts of community currency in their accounts and their orders will be filled in subsequent months.

​

       Also at the end of the first month, after the business entities have been paid, they pay their workers and part of the payment will be in community currency spread out over more workers than just those who’s orders were filled and made payments of community currency. If the grant amounts and financing and production were planned properly, at the end of the month, the business entities will pay the workers nearly all the community currency that the business entities received during the first month. (See the equations below.) The payments of community currency to workers at the end of the month, which are done in conjunction with United States Currency (USD), are shown in Fig. 5. No payments from the long-term projects are shown to their workers because the longer-term projects have not yet received any of the community currency and so they cannot use any. 

​

        Some additional firms and businesses that join during the period are shown. In this example, they are veterinary hospitals/clinics and grocery stores. Some members get grants for veterinary care and these flows are also shown. The hospitals/clinics and grocery stores do not get any community currency payments in the first month. If the manufacturing is in two different localities, the grocery stores and vet hospitals should be in both localities.

​

           

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

      So far, the solar/energy storage and electric vehicle companies have been paid for production and delivery in the first month and then their workers paid. Grocery stores and veterinary hospitals have joined but have not yet been paid any community currency. Some new grants and basic issue of currency have been made to existing and new members during the first month but these are not shown for simplicity of exposition.

 

         Next we observe the second month. During the second month, workers use most of the community currency that they were paid at the end of the first month. Those that got loans in community currency and had their orders filled in the first month will make monthly payments back to the Transition Project currency manager account, as shown by arrows in Fig. 6. Some workers will spend their currency at the other participating entities, the grocery stores and veterinary hospitals/clinics. Some nonworking members will spend supplemental currency at the grocery stores and vet hospitals. The flows from both workers and nonworking members are shown in Fig. 6.

 

      Some workers that did not have their orders filled in the first month will have them filled in the second month and use their grants and loans of the currency toward payment to the solar and EV companies. These flows of community currency from workers in the second month are shown in Fig. 6.

 

      The grocery stores and veterinary hospitals also get grants and zero-interest loans in community currency to help pay for solar installations and these flow are shown. This may serve as an inducement to join the cooperative group. The grocery stores and veterinary hospitals get their solar installations completed and use their grants and financing to pay for them and these are also shown in Fig. 6 .

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

       Some new members and existing ones that did not yet get grants and loans for solar and/or energy storage or electric vehicles get grants and loans in the second month. These flows are not shown in Fig. 6 but they are as shown in Fig. 3. Grants for veterinary care may also be made. They also are not shown in Fig. 6. but are as shown in Fig. 5.

​

       Then at the end of the second month workers are paid in USD and the supplemental currency, as they were at the end of the first month. Now this includes the grocery store and vet hospital workers as well as the solar and EV workers. These flows along are shown in Fig. 7.

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

   

​

       The third month is like the second. During the third month, workers use most of the community currency that they were paid at the end of the previous month. Those that got loans of community currency and had their orders filled in the second month will make monthly payments back to the Transition Project manager in the third month. The Grocery stores and vet hospitals had their solar installations done in the second month and so they too will start making payments. Workers that have their orders filled in the third month use their loans and grants toward payment to the solar/energy storage and EV companies. Other workers will spend their currency at other participating businesses that join by the end of the third month or sooner. The flows of community currency from the workers and grocery store and vet hospitals in the third month are shown in Fig. 8. New grants and financing are not shown but are as in Figs. 3 and 5.

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

       In subsequent months, the cycle repeats: solar equipment is manufactured and installed, electric vehicles are manufactured and delivered; members for whom this is done use their grants and financing to make full payment. Grants for veterinary care are also used.  (See Fig. 6. The currency is deducted from members’ accounts when they use grants and financing); other workers who’s orders for solar and EV were previously filled use their currency paid at the beginning of the month to make payments for the month to the Transition Progect manager. (The monthly installments are automatically deducted from workers accounts. Community currency goes out of circulation when the installment payments are made, i.e., it is destroyed.) The grocery stores and vet hospitals also make installment payments for their solar installations. See Fig. 8 Members, both workers and those not working in the member companies also use currency at the grocery stores and vet hospitals or save the currency in their accounts. The payments increase the accounts of the grocery stores and vet hospitals. Meanwhile, some new grants and financing is extended. The amount of the grants must have a limit related to the number of members and business participation; the total of grants per member should not get too high to avoid accumulation of currency in the system that might not be usable. At the end of the month, workers are paid partially in community currency. The equations below relate the monthly community currency flows and changes in account balances.

 

       The operation of the system will help increase the level of economic functioning in the project’s geographic focus areas, as needed, in a way that helps produce a better society.

​

​

Relations between transfers of community currency and changes in account balances

​

        The functioning of the system shown in Fig. 8 is described by a system of equations that each apply to one of the entities represented by a box, e.g. the solar/energy storage company or the group of solar/energy storage company workers. Solar and energy storage workers and their company(s) will be referred to as just solar workers and solar company, respectively, for brevity and simplicity in what follows. Also for simplicity of this introductory explanation, the grocery stores and veterinary hospitals are treated as a single entity, as in the figure. Also for simplicity, we consider the case in which there are no new grants and financing issued during the period considered. A business entity and its workers are treated as separate entities, even if the business is worker owned.​

 

       Let CC denote community currency. Then for each entity

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

​

       Let's apply this basic equation to the solar company. For the period considered, e.g. one month, define 

​

​

 

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

 

​

       All of these are transfers of community currency into the solar company account by workers or nonworker members. The transfers may be from their grants and financing or just currency in their accounts issued with basic membership or additional support for projects, or received as wages. In the formalism used here, grants and loans for solar installations and electric vehicles go into members accounts and then to the companies. Payments of community currency may be accompanied by payments in US dollars but the variables defined here only include the community currency.

 

       Next consider the transfer of community currency out of the solar company account and the change in the amount of community currency in its account, which appear on the right side of the basic equation.  In the example considered, as shown in the above figures, the only outflow of community currency from the solar company is to the company workers. 

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

​

       Substituting the above variables into the basic equation we find

​

​

       

     

​

       

     

 

       Next consider the solar company workers. In the case considered, the only transfers into the accounts of the solar company workers for the month are payments from the solar company. The variable XSP for the total of these for all of the solar workers is given above and is an output from the solar company account. The transfers from the solar workers are 

​

 

 

 

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

 

 

 

​

​

Let 

​

​

​

​

​

​

Substituting the above variables into the basic equation we find, for the solar workers

​

​

​

​

​

​

       We perform a similar procedure for the electric vehicle company, electric vehicle company workers, grocery stores and vet hospitals, and grocery store and vet hospital workers. We find for the electric vehicle company and the electric vehicle company workers

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Notice that these are similar to the two equations for the solar company  and workers. Similarly, for the grocery stores and vet hospitals and their workers

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Notice that on the right-hand side of the equation for the grocery stores and vet hospitals that there is a term for repayment of loans for solar installations, which the solar company and electric vehicle company do not have. The EV company could have solar but for simplicity the case is considered in which it does not.

​

       Next consider the members not working in the cooperative. In the month considered, members not working in the cooperative can purchase more currency. New members can also join and get currency for basic membership. The total of these is on the left side of the equation. It has been assumed that no new large grants are made in the month considered. 

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Solutions

​

            Solutions to the above equations describe the functioning of a a community currency system. We consider the functioning of a system as shown in Fig. 8 in an intermediate stage for one month as an example. Let’s start by considering some possible transfers of community currency into the solar company account in the month.  The solar company in this example is considered to be large and vertically integrated or a group of companies lumped together for the analysis; it manufactures solar cells at a number of factories, assembles the cells into panels, and installs the panels and associated equipment, including energy storage. Suppose that the company or group has 14,000 manufacturing workers, 46,000 installers around the country and 5,000 support, engineering, marketing and other workers, for a total of 70,000 workers. The companies and firms in the example are only able to use community currency to help pay their workers or the other participating companies and firms, not nonparticipating suppliers. The system and volumes of community currency transfers could become much larger than in this example. There could be multiple solar and electric vehicle companies.

 

       Suppose that some of the solar workers have received $1000 grants plus loans in community currency with total value of about $14,545 each for solar installations. This amount covers most of the cost of an installation. Suppose that 22 of their orders are filled in the month considered, so that $320,000 in community currency goes from the solar workers to the solar company in the month considered. Similarly, suppose that another $320,000 in community currency goes to the solar company for solar installations for electric vehicle company workers. Also suppose that workers in the long-range projects use 10 grants for a total of $10,000 in grants and loans of community currency for solar installations, and grocery store and vet hospital workers use about 4 loan-grant packages for a total $50,000 in community currency grants and financing for solar installations. Suppose that some members not working in the cooperative get community currency grants averaging $1,000 and 2,300 of them get their solar orders filled in the month and so use a total of $2,300,000 in grants for solar installations. (They would make monthly lease or loan payments in USD to the cooperative or banks for the portion of costs not covered by community currency, or in community currency if subsequently allowed.) Then the inputs to the solar company group in the month are

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

The total of these is $3,000,000 and this is the total transfer of community currency into the solar company's accounts during the month and the value of the left side of the equation for the solar company.

​

      Suppose that the solar company chooses not to accumulate any community currency during the month. This means that it requires ΔUS = 0. The equation for the solar company then tells us

​

​

​

​

​

​

This means that to avoid accumulating community currency during the month, the solar company must pay its workers $3,000,000 worth of community currency during or at the end of the month.

​

      For the solar workers, XSP is the only transfer in. (For simplicity, we are considering the case in which there are no new grants or credit advanced to workers during the month.) For the solar workers, we specified the value of community currency transferred from their accounts to the solar company to be $320,000. Suppose that the transfer to the electric vehicle company is also $320,000 from solar workers' grants and credit. Also suppose that the 70,000 solar workers on average each spend about $26.50 of community currency at the grocery stores and/or vet hospitals, for a total transfer of $1,850,000. Suppose also that the total of installment and lease payments of community currency debited from solar workers’ accounts that had their orders for solar installations and electric vehicles filled in previous months is $1,200,000. Then

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

The total of these is $3,690,000, which contributes to the right side of the equation for solar workers (total transfer out). Since the input to the solar workers is only $3,00,000, then

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

This equals the amount of grants and credit used for solar installations and electric vehicles (see above) plus $50,000 in grants for veterinary care. So we find then that the left side and right side values of the equation for the solar workers are equal and so the equation is satisfied. We have found a set of realistic values that satisfies both the equations for the solar company and its workers.

​

       For the electric vehicle company suppose that

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Notice that the input from solar workers to the EV company was specified previously as an output from solar workers. The total of these transfers in is $3,000,000. If the electric vehicle account balance is not to change, then the company must pay its workers $3,000,000 worth of community currency:

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

This payment is the transfer into the electric vehicle workers.

 

       For the electric vehicle workers it could then be that,

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

The total is $3,000,000 so the equation for the electric vehicle workers is satisfied. The transfers to the solar company and electric vehicle company were specified previously and are just being repeated.

​

            For the grocery stores and vet hospitals,

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

 

 

 

 

The total of these inputs is $5,240,000. So if the collective balances of the grocery stores and vet hospitals is not to change, they must pay out $5,240,000 in community currency by the end of the month. For 350 grocery stores, 6 near the solar panel factories and 6 or more near the electric vehicle company facilities, and the rest scattered throughout the country (they serve the installers), that each make monthly payments of $10,000 in community currency to the cooperative for their solar installations, their total payment is $3,500,000. Suppose that the vet hospitals collectively make an additional $25,000 payment for their solar installations. Then if the collective balance of the store and hospital accounts is not to change, they would have to pay $5,240,000 - $3,525,000 = $1,715,000 in community currency to their workers by the end of the month (about $143 on average to each of 12,000 workers). So

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

       The payment to the workers is the input for them. So for the GV workers, the outputs and change in total account balance may then be

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

The total out is $1,850,000 and the change in accounts is -$135,000. Note that the outputs from the GV workers to the solar company, electric vehicle company and grocery stores and vet hospitals are equal to the inputs from them to the solar company, electric vehicle company and grocery stores and vet hospitals in the previous equations. So with these values the equation for the grocery store and vet hospital workers is satisfied and consistent with the other equations.

​

Back to top

​

DISCUSSION

​

A mathematical analysis can be used to estimate the expected effect that a currency system of the kind considered can have relative to different scenarios without the system. The example solution above provides a starting point in the analysis.

​

The solution for transfers and changes in account balances for a month shows that the configuration shown above could have transactions with significant amounts of community currency. In the example solution, 2358 system members used community currency during the month for new residential solar installations with energy storage or for contributions to community solar projects. So 2,358 residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent combination of individual residential installations and community solar expansion received support from community currency. The total community currency used was $3,000,000. (See the input for the solar company.) If the grants and credit were awarded to enable purchases that otherwise would not be possible, then in the example solution, the system enabled 2358 more solar installations (or an equivalent combination of residential installations and participation in community solar installations), to be completed in the month considered than otherwise would be.

 

        Similarly, more electric vehicle purchases than otherwise possible would be enabled. With this happening over an extended period of time, more workers could be hired than otherwise would be and more low-carbon energy and transportation technology would be deployed. 

​

           Also, by the start of the period considered, 350 grocery store installations had each been paid for largely with the community currency.

 

A group of factories with the number of workers given (14,000) could manufacture PV panels for about 15 times the number of installations that used community currency in the month (2,358), or 35,000 installations, but without necessarily accepting community currency for more than 2,358.

​

​

Estimation of the potential number of installations to be assisted by community currency

It can be shown that if the solar companies do not accumulate any community currency, the number of installations NSIC per month that can be assisted by community currency will depend on the  average amount of the currency per solar worker ps that the solar workers can be paid per month, the number Nsw of solar workers in the currency system, and the ratio R of installations assisted by the currency in a month to the currency accepted by the solar companies in the month.  The amount paid in community currency to the solar workers per month is psNsw  and this is the only outflow of the currency from the companies. So if the solar companies do not accumulate any of the currency it must also be the currency income per month. So the number of installations assisted by the currency per month is 

 

                     NSIC = ps Nsw R 

​

The factors on the right may vary from month to month, but the expected time evolution of the product of the factors is useful for predicting performance. The  ps value is determined mostly be the set of providers and producers in the system, which consisted of grocery stores and vet hospitals, solar and EV companies in the example configuration. It also depends on the workers' needs. Adding other types of producers and providers to the mix might increase ps over time.

 

R is an important parameter that is related to the effectiveness of the grant policies in encouraging solar installations, the quality and cost effectiveness of the solar technology and the overall marketing of the solar equipment and installations.  In the example, R = 2,358/ $3,000,000 = 0.000786. The vast majority of the orders that used community currency used $1,000 grants.

​

Increasing ps

In the example, the payment of community currency to the solar workers (70,000 workers) is only about $43 per worker on average for the month. (Some workers would get more, some less. depending on their preferences.) So approximately ps = $43 per solar worker for the example. On average, they could use around 10 times that much (All could use the currency for groceries, some would use it at the vet hospitals, some would make payments in the currency of around $150 per month on loans for solar installations with energy storage, and some payments of about $500 for EVs in the month. On average over the workers, this could come to at least $430 per month.), So ps  could be 430 or even higher.    This is for the case in which the workers on average do not accumulate the currency. So for the R value and number of solar workers assumed in the example, the number of installations in the month assisted by community currency could then be 10 times as many as in the example. That would be 23,580 to  35,370 installations per month assisted by community currency.

 

To see that the set of currency equations would be satisfied with payment to solar workers 10 times the amount in the example, just multiply both sides of each equation by 10.  This is equivalent to multiplying each currency flow and each change in balance by the multiplier of 10. Recall that the changes in account balances for the solar, EV, grocery stores and vet hospitals was zero in the example.  In general the currency flows and changes in account balances in the equations for the given configuration can just be scaled up, which would require the workers in the companies to collectively receive and use more currency and might require the number of companies and firms of some kinds to be increased.

​

Roughly 14 very large factories or the equivalent producing cells and assembling them into panels or the equivalent would have the combined total of 14,000 manufacturing workers, assuming the level of automation in 2022.

​

​

Increasing Ns
To complete 20 million residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent over 20 years assisted by the community currency, there would have to be an average of about 83,330 per month assisted by the currency. This would be approximately 3.53 times the rate of 23,580 with the increased ps (10 times the initial value) for the given system configuration but with the Ns and R values in the example. So with the higher ps but without an increase in the R value, the average Ns value over the 20 years would have to be about 3.53 times the early stage number of 70,000 given in the example. 

​

The total production capacity from increasing Ns by a factor of 3.53 would would be increased to 3.53 x 35,000 = 123,550 installations per month.

​

Increasing R

Next, consider the effect of increasing R. In practice, the number of orders using community currency per dollar of community currency used could be larger., i.,e, R could be greater. Equivalently, the average amount used per order could be considerably less. Then a given total in community currency income would result from a larger number of orders. R would be maximized with a range of grant amounts related to income, instead of just having one level of $1,000. Technological advancement could also increase R; if the solar and energy storage technology offered on the system website becomes more advanced, and so more economical, prospective grant recipients over all grant levels would be expected to become more responsive. This would further increase R.

 

An R value of about twice the value in the example, or higher, should be possible. If the R value were 1.3 times the amount in the example because more orders would be produced from the same community currency amount, then with the scaled-up system, there would be 1.3 x 83,330 = 108,329 installations using community currency per month, still less than the monthly capacity of 123,500 of the larger group of solar factories. (See above.) With the higher R value over 20 years, the larger system could accept community currency to assist payment for about 26 million residential installations or the equivalent.

​

The community currency system scaled-up from the example by a factor of 3.53 has Nsw = 247,100 solar workers. Per worker just the solar companies may accept ps = $429 in community currency for a total of $106,005,900 in community currency per month. The solar companies pay this amount in community currency to the 247,100 workers per month.  With R = 1.3 x 0.000786 = 0.0010218, the system then enables approximately 108,329 residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent per month to be assisted by community currency. If these values represent average monthly performance over 20 years, about 26 million residential installations with energy storage or the equivalent would be assisted by community currency in 20 years. This would be 40% of the required total of 100 million for the US.

(Once the configuration becomes mature and policies become constant, ps might remain relatively constant and Nsw would grow. R might also increase as solar technology becomes more advanced. So then the estimate of 26 million assisted installations would correspond with a predicted average value of NswR = 247,100 x 0.0010218 over 20 years.)

​

​

Comparing possible scenarios

Next, consider the effect of the currency system relative to scenarios without the  system.

 

To be in line with global requirements for keeping warming below 2C, the US should build at least roughly 5 million residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent per year, i.e., 416,666 per month, on average during the period from 2020 through 2040, to get to an additional 100 million by the end of 2040. 

 

One very large factory might produce enough cells and panels for roughly 2,470 residential installations per month. So over 168 very large factories or the equivalent would be needed just for the residential requirement in the US, (assuming both cell and panel assembly is done at the US factories).

​

To begin to estimate the potential difference the currency system could make in the transition of electricity generation in the US away from fossil fuels, suppose that in a baseline scenario without the currency system, the political-economic system in the US only installs 60 million of the needed 100 million residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent over the 20 year period considered. Based on the analysis, in an alternate scenario with the currency system having a monthly average psNswR = 108,329 over 20 years, 26 million residential solar installations with energy storage or the equivalent could be assisted by community currency, and 3.6 million others completed by the participating solar companies, but without contributions from the currency. Also in the alternate scenario, suppose that 48.4 million more could be completed by companies not participating in the currency. 78 million total would be completed. In this scenario, relative to the baseline, 30% more residential PV capacity with energy storage is added because of the currency system.

​

Stated differently, in the alternate scenario, the currency enables 18 million installations that would not happen in the baseline scenario. The 18 million is about 69% of the installations assisted by the community currency, i.e., 69% of the installations assisted by the currency would not have been completed in the baseline scenario. Note that (1 - 0.69) x 26 million + 3.6 million + 48.4 Million = 60 million is the number completed without the currency. Adding 0.69 x 26 million gives he total number completed in the scenario with the currency system. (accounting for round-off error)

 

Of course there are many possible scenarios and the currency system size could be scaled up to assist more than 26 million installations with community currency. If the average value of the product psNswR over 20 years is 50% greater than in the above scenario, 39 million solar installations with storage would be assisted by community currency.

​

Computer simulations based on different sets of assumptions could provide a possible scenario for each set of assumptions.

​

Commercial installations

So far, the analysis has considered solar capacity to provide for residential demand. Additional factories would be needed to provide for commercial solar installations.  Recall though that the factories in the example had already produced enough for 350 grocery store installations assisted by community currency by the start of the period. This would be scaled up by about the factor 3.53 by which the overall currency system would be scaled up. More research is needed to estimate the potential for assisting more commercial installations.

​

A similar analyses may be used to estimate contribution to the uptake of electric vehicles.

 

​